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Can the Superpowers Agree on Arms Control?

Amid the renewed tensions between the United States and Russia over Ukraine, Syria, and other issues, some experts and officials have called for a revival of arms control negotiations. They argue that reducing the risks of nuclear weapons use and conventional warfare can benefit both countries and the world as a whole. However, reaching such agreements is not easy, especially given the different perspectives, priorities, and political systems of the superpowers. Here are some of the potential challenges and opportunities for arms control.

The legacy of the Cold War

One reason why arms control has been a subject of contention between the US and Russia is their historical rivalry and mistrust. During the Cold War, both sides developed massive arsenals of nuclear and conventional weapons, engaged in a series of arms races and crises, and deployed forces and bases around the world. Although they signed several treaties and agreements to limit or reduce some of their weapons, such as the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned land-based missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, they also accused each other of violating or undermining these commitments. Moreover, since the end of the Cold War, both countries have faced new security challenges, such as terrorism, cyber attacks, and regional conflicts, that have tested their strategic thinking and military capabilities. Therefore, they may have different views on what kind of arms control measures are necessary, feasible, or desirable.

The changing global context

Another factor that affects the prospects of arms control is the changing global context. In recent years, the world has witnessed several developments that could either enhance or undermine the incentives to reduce arms and enhance cooperation. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for global health security and scientific collaboration, which could provide a common ground for the superpowers to cooperate on issues such as biosecurity, biosafety, and vaccine research. On the other hand, the rise of new technologies, such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, could complicate arms control negotiations, as they blur the boundaries between civilian and military applications and raise questions about verification, compliance, and stability. Moreover, the growing assertiveness of China, which has developed its own nuclear arsenal and military capabilities, could challenge the US and Russia to rethink their traditional bilateral approach to arms control and how they engage with other major powers.

The political will and leadership

Finally, the success of arms control negotiations depends on the political will and leadership of the superpowers. While both the US and Russia have shown some interest in resuming talks, their domestic and international contexts may limit the scope and pace of their efforts. For example, the upcoming US presidential election, the ongoing sanctions and conflicts between the US and Russia, and the global economic downturn caused by the pandemic could distract or hinder the diplomatic efforts. Similarly, the changes in Russia`s leadership, the pressure from its allies and rivals, and the domestic opposition to any perceived concessions to the US could also affect its stance. Therefore, any potential breakthroughs in arms control negotiations would require not only technical expertise and diplomatic skills but also strategic vision and political courage.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, while the superpowers have a shared interest in controlling their arms and reducing their risks of conflict, achieving such a goal is not easy. Arms control negotiations face challenges such as the legacy of the Cold War, the changing global context, and the political will and leadership of the superpowers. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, global challenges require global solutions, and arms control can be a part of the broader efforts to enhance international cooperation and stability. To reach such agreements, the superpowers would need to overcome their differences, engage with other major powers, and demonstrate their commitment to the common good.